<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlemeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler giderek g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Olas\u0131 hedefler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tahmin edilebilir olsa da, b\u00f6yle bir askeri hamlenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor.<\/p>\n
BBC, Tahran\u2019la bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamaz ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verirse, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek senaryolar \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralad\u0131:<\/p>\n
ABD hava ve deniz kuvvetleri; \u0130ran Devrim Muhaf\u0131zlar\u0131 Ordusu’na, ona ba\u011fl\u0131 Besic g\u00fc\u00e7leri, balistik f\u00fcze f\u0131rlatma ve depolama alanlar\u0131 ile \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 hedef alan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve hassas sald\u0131r\u0131lar d\u00fczenler.<\/p>\n
Zaten zay\u0131flam\u0131\u015f olan rejim devrilir ve \u0130ran, zamanla ger\u00e7ek bir demokrasiye ge\u00e7erek yeniden d\u00fcnya sistemiyle b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fir.<\/p>\n
Bu, son derece iyimser bir senaryo olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n Irak ve Libya\u2019daki askeri m\u00fcdahaleleri her ne kadar diktat\u00f6rl\u00fckleri sona erdirmi\u015f olsa da, uzun y\u0131llar s\u00fcren kaos ve \u015fiddeti beraberinde getirmi\u015fti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 2024\u2019te Be\u015far Esad\u2019\u0131 deviren Suriye\u2019de, Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n do\u011frudan askeri deste\u011fi olmadan ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen devrim \u015fimdilik daha istikrarl\u0131 bir tablo \u00e7iziyor.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryo, ABD\u2019nin h\u0131zl\u0131 ve sert bir askeri hamleyle rejimi devirmeden, politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cVenezuela modeli\u201dne benzetiliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bu, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor; bu durum bir\u00e7ok \u0130ranl\u0131y\u0131 tatmin etmese de, rejimin Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki silahl\u0131 milislere deste\u011fini azaltmas\u0131, n\u00fckleer ve balistik f\u00fcze programlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve protestolara y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131y\u0131 gev\u015fetmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak bu ihtimal de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ran\u2019daki mevcut y\u00f6netim, 47 y\u0131ld\u0131r de\u011fi\u015fime direnen bir \u00e7izgi izliyor ve bu a\u015famada y\u00f6n de\u011fi\u015ftirebilece\u011fine dair g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir i\u015faret bulunmuyor.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok g\u00f6zlemciye g\u00f6re en olas\u0131 senaryo askeri bir y\u00f6netimin devreye girmesi. Rejim, geni\u015f kesimler nezdinde pop\u00fclerli\u011fini yitirmi\u015f olsa da, stat\u00fckodan \u00e7\u0131kar sa\u011flayan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve yayg\u0131n bir g\u00fcvenlik ayg\u0131t\u0131na sahip. Protestolar\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadar rejimi devirememesinin temel nedenleri aras\u0131nda, ciddi kopu\u015flar\u0131n ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 ve iktidar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7 ve \u015fiddet kullanmaya haz\u0131r olmas\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
ABD sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan olu\u015fabilecek kaos ortam\u0131nda, \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde IRGC kadrolar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan sert bir askeri y\u00f6netim taraf\u0131ndan kontrol edilmesi ihtimal dahilinde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Tahran y\u00f6netimi, olas\u0131 bir ABD sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verilece\u011fini ve \u201cparma\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tetikte oldu\u011funu\u201d a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran, ABD Donanmas\u0131 ve Hava Kuvvetleri ile ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kabilecek g\u00fc\u00e7te olmasa da, ma\u011faralarda, yer alt\u0131 tesislerinde ya da da\u011fl\u0131k b\u00f6lgelerde gizlenmi\u015f balistik f\u00fczeler ve insans\u0131z hava ara\u00e7lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k verebilir. K\u00f6rfez\u2019in Arap yakas\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle Bahreyn ve Katar\u2019daki ABD \u00fcsleri potansiyel hedefler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. \u0130ran, sald\u0131r\u0131ya ortak oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00dcrd\u00fcn gibi \u00fclkelerin kritik altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 da hedef alabilir.<\/p>\n
2019\u2019da Suudi Aramco tesislerine d\u00fczenlenen ve \u0130ran destekli bir milisle ili\u015fkilendirilen f\u00fcze ve \u0130HA sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinin bu t\u00fcr tehditlere ne kadar a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryo, 1980\u20131988 \u0130ran-Irak Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019ndan bu yana k\u00fcresel ticaret ve enerji arz\u0131 i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130ran ile Umman aras\u0131nda yer alan Strait of Hormuz, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kritik ge\u00e7i\u015f noktalar\u0131ndan biri. K\u00fcresel s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz (LNG) ticaretinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 20\u2019si ve petrol ile petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin y\u00fczde 20\u201325\u2019i her y\u0131l bu bo\u011fazdan ge\u00e7iyor. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n deniz may\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla konu\u015fland\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik tatbikatlar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. B\u00f6yle bir ad\u0131m, d\u00fcnya ticaretini ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n
ABD Donanmas\u0131\u2019nda g\u00f6rev yapan bir kaptan\u0131n da dile getirdi\u011fi \u00fczere, en b\u00fcy\u00fck endi\u015felerden biri \u201cs\u00fcr\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131\u201d olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan taktik.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda \u0130ran, \u00e7ok say\u0131da patlay\u0131c\u0131 y\u00fckl\u00fc \u0130HA ve h\u0131zl\u0131 torpido botunu ayn\u0131 anda kullanarak ABD gemilerini hedef al\u0131r; bu da geli\u015fmi\u015f savunma sistemlerinin dahi t\u00fcm tehditleri zaman\u0131nda etkisiz hale getirememesine yol a\u00e7abilir.<\/p>\n
IRGC Donanmas\u0131, K\u00f6rfez\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde konvansiyonel \u0130ran Donanmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yerini alm\u0131\u015f durumda ve e\u011fitimini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak asimetrik sava\u015fa odakl\u0131yor. Bir ABD sava\u015f gemisinin bat\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcrettebattan hayatta kalanlar\u0131n esir al\u0131nmas\u0131, Washington i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lanma anlam\u0131na gelir. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ihtimal olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, 2000\u2019de USS Cole\u2019un Aden Liman\u0131\u2019nda El Kaide sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131yla a\u011f\u0131r hasar almas\u0131 ve 1987\u2019de USS Stark\u2019\u0131n yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131kla vurulmas\u0131, bu riskin tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilemeyece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Bu, Katar ve Suudi Arabistan gibi kom\u015fular\u0131n en \u00e7ok endi\u015fe etti\u011fi senaryolar aras\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Suriye, Yemen ve Libya \u00f6rneklerinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, i\u00e7 sava\u015f ihtimalinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra K\u00fcrtler, Belu\u00e7lar ve di\u011fer az\u0131nl\u0131klar\u0131n, merkezi otoritenin \u00e7\u00f6kmesiyle silahl\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi riski bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00f6lgedeki bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke, \u00f6zellikle de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer program\u0131n\u0131 varolu\u015fsal bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6ren \u0130srail, \u0130slam Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin sona ermesini memnuniyetle kar\u015f\u0131layabilir. Ancak 93 milyonluk n\u00fcfusuyla Ortado\u011fu\u2019nun en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkelerinden birinin kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesi, b\u00fcy\u00fck bir insani ve m\u00fclteci krizini tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck tehlike ise, s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131na yak\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerde bu denli g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir askeri y\u0131\u011f\u0131nak yapan Trump\u2019\u0131n \u201cgeri ad\u0131m atmamak\u201d ad\u0131na harekete ge\u00e7mesi ve sonu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen, etkileri b\u00f6lgeyi a\u015fabilecek bir sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir sald\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlemeye haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair i\u015faretler giderek g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Olas\u0131 hedefler b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde tahmin edilebilir olsa da, b\u00f6yle bir askeri hamlenin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131 belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. BBC, Tahran\u2019la bir anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lamaz ve ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump ABD g\u00fc\u00e7lerine sald\u0131r\u0131 emri verirse, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kabilecek senaryolar \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralad\u0131: 1. S\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 ve nokta at\u0131\u015f\u0131<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":105159,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[85],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-105158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-spor"],"yoast_head":"\n