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<\/div>\nPara piyasalar\u0131nda, Fed\u2019in y\u0131l sonunda faiz indirmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler \u00f6nemli derecede g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti. \u00dclkede a\u00e7\u0131klanan makroekonomik veriler g\u00fcnden g\u00fcne fiyatlamalar\u0131 daha da zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.
ABD ekonomisinin son 30 y\u0131l\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ad\u0131mlar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n so\u011fuma emaresi g\u00f6stermemesi piyasalarda ba\u015fl\u0131ca risk unsuru olmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Covid-19<\/a> salg\u0131n\u0131 sonras\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler d\u00fcnya genelinde enflasyona neden olurken, salg\u0131n\u0131n etkisini kaybetmesiyle bir\u00e7ok merkez bankas\u0131, \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d politikalara son vererek \u201c\u015fahin\u201d tarafa ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n \u201c\u015eahin\u201d ad\u0131mlarda d\u00fcnyaya \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck eden Fed, 25 baz puanla ba\u015flayan faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 75 baz puana kadar \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131 ve toplamda 450 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitti.<\/p>\n Banka, Aral\u0131k 2022 ve \u015fubat toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 25\u2019er baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek 75 baz puandan 25 baz puana indirirken, bu d\u00f6nemde para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalara Fed\u2019in nihai faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 5,25-5,50 band\u0131nda belirleyece\u011fi beklentileri hakim oldu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n \u015fubatta a\u00e7\u0131klanan istihdam raporu verilerinde tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam\u0131n ocakta 517 binle beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, piyasalardaki fiyatlamalar\u0131 tekrar zorla\u015ft\u0131ran s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatt\u0131.<\/p>\n Para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda Fed\u2019in faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya kadar \u00e7\u0131karabilece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik tahminler ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken, Banka\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131l sonunda faiz indirmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler ise \u00f6nemli derecede g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti.<\/p>\n ABD ekonomisi so\u011fumuyor<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00dclkede a\u00e7\u0131klanan makroekonomik veriler, Fed\u2019in so\u011futmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonominin hala s\u0131cak oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n Analistler, a\u00e7\u0131klanan baz\u0131 verilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa yava\u015flayan ekonomik aktiviteye i\u015faret etti\u011fini ancak s\u00f6z konusu yava\u015flaman\u0131n piyasa beklentilerinin uza\u011f\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, bu durumun piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131n\u0131 bozmaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam, \u015fubatta 311 bin ki\u015fi artarak beklentileri a\u015farken, i\u015fsizlik y\u00fczde 3,4\u2019ten y\u00fczde 3,6\u2019ya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n Fed\u2019in dikkatle izledi\u011fi ortalama saatlik kazan\u00e7 ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 0,2 artarak 33,09 dolar<\/a>a t\u0131rmand\u0131. Piyasa beklentileri, ortalama saatlik kazanc\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde ocak ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fczde 0,3 artmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019de ocak ay\u0131 T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 6,4 ve \u00dcretici Fiyat Endeksi (\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 6 artarken, iki verinin de piyasa beklentilerinin \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine ili\u015fkin soru i\u015faretlerini ortaya koydu.<\/p>\n \u00dclkede fabrika sipari\u015fleri, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1,6 azalsa da tahminlerden daha az geriledi, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ise ocakta y\u00fczde 3 ile \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 \u015fubatta 242 bin y\u00fckselirken, piyasalarda 200 binlik bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 bekleniyordu. \u00dclkede JOLTS a\u00e7\u0131k i\u015f say\u0131s\u0131, ocakta 10 milyon 842 bine gerilese de bu verinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 dikkati \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n Fed\u2019in bu ayki Bej Kitap Raporu\u2019nda da genel ekonomik faaliyetin 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda \u201cbiraz\u201d artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi. Bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgede fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n enflasyonist bask\u0131lar\u0131n yayg\u0131n olmaya devam etti\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l boyunca \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelmeye devam etmesinin beklendi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n Konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki yava\u015flama da istenen d\u00fczeyde de\u011fil<\/strong><\/p>\n Analistler, ABD ekonomisinde konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00f6nemine dikkati \u00e7ekerek, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bundan \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde ilk \u00f6nce konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc etkiledi\u011fini, devam\u0131nda di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlerin yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n At\u0131lan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ad\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131n \u00fclkede hen\u00fcz konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de istenilen sonucun al\u0131namad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten analistler, artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomide yava\u015flamaya neden olamamakla birlikte bankac\u0131l\u0131k ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere \u00e7e\u015fitli sekt\u00f6rlerde likidite sorununa yol a\u00e7abilme ihtimalinin Fed\u2019in i\u015fini gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n ABD\u2019de ocakta yeni konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 670 binle \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. S&P Case-Shiller Ulusal Konut Fiyat Endeksi, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131kta y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 5,8 artarak \u00f6nceki aylara k\u0131yasla yava\u015flama kaydetti.<\/p>\n \u00d6te yandan, \u00fclkede hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi (PMI) 50,6 ile geni\u015flemeye i\u015faret ederken, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n Michigan \u00dcniversitesi t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi \u015fubatta 67\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ocakta ki\u015fisel harcamalar da y\u00fczde 1,8 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde artt\u0131.<\/p>\n \u00dclkede Conference Board T\u00fcketici G\u00fcven Endeksi, \u015fubatta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. T\u00fcketicilerin 12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentileri y\u00fczde 6,7\u2019den y\u00fczde 6,3\u2019e geriledi.
AA\/BRT<\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n