{"id":63560,"date":"2024-09-20T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-19T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/20\/ilk-indirim-kasimda-bekleniyor-dunya-gazetesi\/"},"modified":"2024-09-20T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-19T21:00:00","slug":"ilk-indirim-kasimda-bekleniyor-dunya-gazetesi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/?p=63560","title":{"rendered":"\u0130lk indirim kas\u0131mda bekleniyor – D\u00fcnya Gazetesi"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

Birol BOZKURT<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak politika faizini %50 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. \u00dcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayan Merkez, karar metnindeki \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle dikkatleri \u00fczerine \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki karar metninde yer alan \u201cEnflasyonda belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bozulma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda ise para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u201d ifadesi son metinde \u201cEnflasyonda belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bozulma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda ise para politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131 etkili \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u201d \u015feklinde de\u011fi\u015fti. Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcndeki bozulmalar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha esnek bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimseyen TCMB, yeni stratejisiyle piyasalar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc belirleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

S\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f ve likidite mesajlar\u0131 korundu<\/h3>\n

TCMB\u2019nin karar metninde A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyona dair g\u00f6stergelerin bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak incelendi\u011finde, ana e\u011filimin belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fim sergilemedi\u011fi belirtildi. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin g\u00f6stergelerin yurt i\u00e7i talebin yava\u015flamaya devam ederek enflasyonist etkisinin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 teyit etti\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen TCMB temel mal enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmeye devam ederken, hizmet enflasyonundaki iyile\u015fmenin son \u00e7eyrekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin beklendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

TCMB, enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyatlama davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk unsuru olmaya devam etti\u011fini kaydetti. Ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma vurgusu metinden \u00e7\u0131karken, di\u011fer mesajlar korundu TCMB\u2019nin metninden ek s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma vurgusu \u00e7\u0131karken s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f ve likidite ad\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik mesajlar\u0131n da korundu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Metinde, para politikas\u0131ndaki kararl\u0131 duru\u015fun; yurt i\u00e7i talepte dengelenme, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131nda reel de\u011ferlenme ve enflasyon beklentilerinde d\u00fczelme vas\u0131tas\u0131 ile ayl\u0131k enflasyonun ana e\u011filimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi ve dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

TCMB ayl\u0131k enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanana ve enflasyon beklentileri \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131nsayana kadar s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Kredi ve mevduat piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda geli\u015fmeler olmas\u0131 durumunda parasal aktar\u0131m mekanizmas\u0131 ilave makroihtiyati ad\u0131mlarla desteklenece\u011fini belirten TCMB likidite ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n muhtemel geli\u015fmeler g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak yak\u0131ndan izlendi\u011fini, sterilizasyon ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n da etkili \u015fekilde kullan\u0131lmaya devam edilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

4 bin 150 baz puanl\u0131k s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma<\/h3>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen genel se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan Haziran ay\u0131ndan beri ya\u015fanan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sonucu olarak TCMB politika faizini sonuncusu Mart ay\u0131nda olmak \u00fczere 4 bin 150 baz puan y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti. Enflasyon May\u0131s\u2019ta y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 75,45\u2019te zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra politika de\u011fi\u015fimi ve baz etkisinin de katk\u0131s\u0131yla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erek A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 51,97 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. TCMB bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 38\u2019e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketine g\u00f6re bu beklenti y\u00fczde 43 civar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce g\u00fcncellenen OVP\u2019deki y\u0131l sonu tahmini ise y\u00fczde 41,5 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n

Perform Portf\u00f6y Fon Y\u00f6neticisi Altan Ayd\u0131n: TCMB faiz indirimine kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda ba\u015flar<\/h3>\n

FED, dun asl\u0131nda piyasa i\u015flemcilerinin istedi\u011fini verdi diyebiliriz. Karar \u00f6ncesinde 50 baz puan indirim fiyatlan\u0131yordu fakat ekonomist beklentileri 25 baz puan etraf\u0131nda k\u00fcmelenmi\u015fti, bu a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7ok da s\u00fcrpriz bir karar olarak g\u00f6rm\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Fakat bence daha \u00f6nemlisi 2025 i\u00e7in faiz beklentilerinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmi\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Tabi piyasa i\u00e7in en cok merak edilen b\u00fcy\u00fcme projeksiyonlar\u0131 oldu, Fed b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi, bu da resesyon endi\u015felerini \u00f6teledi fakat hala veri odakl\u0131 olmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum, zira y\u0131l sonuna kadar \u00e7ok beklenti de\u011fi\u015febilir fakat \u015fimdilik bu karar risk alg\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pozitif. \u0130\u00e7eriye d\u00f6necek olursam bu toplant\u0131y\u0131 pas ge\u00e7en TCMB\u2019nin, kas\u0131mda ba\u015flamak \u00fczere y\u0131l sonunda politika faizinin %45 seviyesinde olu\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n

Sebebi y\u0131l i\u00e7inde art\u0131r\u0131lan s\u00fcrpriz faizin geri al\u0131nmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelece\u011fi ve Ekim ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun art\u0131k politika faizinin alt\u0131na gelecek olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Yani %45\u2019e gelecek olan politika faizi hala gevsek bir para politikas\u0131na ihtiva etmeyecektir. Burada bizim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyon beklentilerini \u00e7\u0131palamak, bunu da sadece para politikas\u0131yla sa\u011flamak kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Ata Yat\u0131r\u0131m Hazine GMY Etem \u00d6ztekin: Enflasyonda bozulma olursa ilk indirim 2025\u2019e kayabilir<\/h3>\n

TCMB\u2019nin beklentiler dahilindeki karar\u0131n\u0131 ve sonras\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karar metnini olumlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yoruz. Belli ki a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan enflasyon verilerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn yan\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u00fcn FED\u2019in ve \u00f6nceki hafta ECB\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz indirimleri TCMB\u2019nin elini bir nebze g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ancak verileri g\u00f6rmeden de, \u00f6nden bir faiz indirimi yapmamas\u0131n\u0131 ya da Ekim ay\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131na dair sinyal vermemesini do\u011fru buluyoruz. Karar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131 saatlerde Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in Eyl\u00fcl enflasyonunda %40\u2019l\u0131 seviyelere inece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00f6nemliydi. Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de ayl\u0131k enflasyonun %1.70 – %2.00 aras\u0131nda gelmesi halinde, y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon %47.50-%48.00 band\u0131na inecek.<\/p>\n

Buna yak\u0131n bir enflasyon verisi gelmesi durumunda TCMB\u2019nin Ekim ay\u0131nda da herhangi bir indirim yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 4 Kas\u0131m\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Ekim enflasyonunu g\u00f6rmek isteyece\u011fini tahmin ediyoruz. Kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki PPK tarihinde y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun %45 seviyelerinde olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Bu beklentilerimiz do\u011frultusunda; sinyalini Ekim PPK metninde verip ilk faiz indirimini Kas\u0131m\u2019da yapmas\u0131 ihtimalini y\u00fcksek g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Enflasyon verilerinde beklenti d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir hareket olmas\u0131 durumunda ise ilk faiz indiriminin 2025\u2019in Ocak ay\u0131na kaymas\u0131n\u0131 bekleriz.<\/p>\n

BBVA K\u00fcresel Piyasalar Strateji Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Tufan C\u00f6mert: Sterilizasyon ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n etkin kullan\u0131m\u0131na devam edilecek<\/h3>\n

TCMB bug\u00fcn toplanarak politika faizini \u00fcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 kez %50 seviyesinde tutma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Biz de dahil olmak \u00fczere piyasalar politika faizinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklemiyordu. A\u00e7\u0131klama metninde baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler olsa da ana mesajlar yine \u015fahin tarafta yer al\u0131yor. TCMB s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ancak \u201cenflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 bir k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fme olursa para politikas\u0131 daha da s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u201d c\u00fcmlesini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

TCMB bunun yerine \u201cko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi halinde para politikas\u0131 ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 etkin bir \u015fekilde kullanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d belirtiyor. Bu, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rm\u0131yor, ancak a\u00e7\u0131k bir referans\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ileriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olarak masadan kalkt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feklinde alg\u0131lanacakt\u0131r. TCMB ayr\u0131ca, i\u00e7 talepteki yava\u015flaman\u0131n devam etmesi nedeniyle A\u011fustos ay\u0131nda enflasyonun ana e\u011filiminde belirgin bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6zlenmedi\u011finin de\u011ferlendirildi\u011fini belirtmi\u015ftir. Bununla birlikte, hizmet enflasyonundaki iyile\u015fmenin 4\u00c7\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi beklenmektedir.<\/p>\n

TCMB ayr\u0131ca sterilizasyon ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n etkin bir \u015fekilde uygulanmaya devam edece\u011fini yineliyor. \u00d6zetle, \u00f6nceki toplant\u0131larda oldu\u011fu gibi, TCMB faizlerin gelecekteki patikas\u0131na veya olas\u0131 faiz indirimlerinin zamanlamas\u0131na ili\u015fkin herhangi bir y\u00f6nlendirme yapm\u0131yor. Ancak tonunda herhangi bir yumu\u015fama yok, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bize g\u00f6re bu yine \u015fahin bir a\u00e7\u0131klama. Herhangi bir sinyal vermek i\u00e7in en uygun zaman 8 Kas\u0131m\u2019da yay\u0131nlanacak olan y\u0131l\u0131n son enflasyon raporu olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Fazla TL likiditesine ili\u015fkin olarak TCMB yine bir sinyal vermiyor, ancak sistemde hala 300 milyar TL likidite var ve bunun ba\u015fl\u0131ca nedeni TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz al\u0131mlar\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, TCMB\u2019nin tercihinin bu likidite fazlas\u0131yla m\u00fccadele etmek yerine d\u00f6viz rezervlerini art\u0131rmak oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. TL likidite fazlas\u0131 TL mevduat faizlerinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olarak yerel yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n para birimi tercihini etkileyebilir ancak DTH ve DTH verilerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir durumun s\u00f6z konusu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu anlamda, TCMB\u2019nin piyasan\u0131n oldu\u011fu gibi kalmas\u0131na izin vermesi muhtemeldir.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Birol BOZKURT T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak politika faizini %50 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. \u00dcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayan Merkez, karar metnindeki \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle dikkatleri \u00fczerine \u00e7ekti. A\u011fustos ay\u0131ndaki karar metninde yer alan \u201cEnflasyonda belirgin ve kal\u0131c\u0131 bir bozulma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda ise para politikas\u0131 duru\u015fu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r\u201d ifadesi son<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63561,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-magazin"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0130lk indirim kas\u0131mda bekleniyor - D\u00fcnya Gazetesi -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/?p=63560\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130lk indirim kas\u0131mda bekleniyor - D\u00fcnya Gazetesi -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Birol BOZKURT T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB), piyasa beklentilerine paralel olarak politika faizini %50 seviyesinde sabit tuttu. \u00dcst \u00fcste alt\u0131nc\u0131 toplant\u0131da faiz oran\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayan Merkez, karar metnindeki \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fiklikle dikkatleri \u00fczerine \u00e7ekti. 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