{"id":63889,"date":"2024-09-20T19:34:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/20\/dr-mahfi-egilmezden-faiz-yazisi-merkez-bankasi-buyume-rakamina-bakacak\/"},"modified":"2024-09-20T19:34:00","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T16:34:00","slug":"dr-mahfi-egilmezden-faiz-yazisi-merkez-bankasi-buyume-rakamina-bakacak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/?p=63889","title":{"rendered":"Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez’den faiz yaz\u0131s\u0131: Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131na bakacak"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

\n

Eski Hazine M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131, yazar ve akademisyen Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faizi y\u00fczde 50’de sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ki\u015fisel blogunda faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez, yaz\u0131s\u0131na ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerine ve bu \u00fclkelerdeki enflasyonun seyrine de\u011finmesinin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin durumunu inceledi.<\/p>\n

E\u011filmez, T\u00fcrkiye’deki enflasyonun ‘en k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda olan’ Rusya’daki y\u00fczde 9,1 seviyesine inmesiyle sorun olmak \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek 50 y\u0131ld\u0131r ortalama y\u00fczde 38 enflasyonla ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, y\u00fczde 10’luk enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kabul edildi\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

“Bizde uzun s\u00fcredir egemen olan dolarizasyon olgusu alt\u0131nda insanlar d\u00f6viz almay\u0131, d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesab\u0131 a\u00e7may\u0131, faizi s\u0131f\u0131r bile olsa, anaparay\u0131 koruyucu bir yat\u0131r\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyor ve d\u00f6vize yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor” diyen E\u011filmez,\u00a0<\/span>ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00f6vize ba\u011fl\u0131 bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bu yap\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek enflasyonla birle\u015fince fiyatlama al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n da d\u00f6vize endeksli bir hal ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/span><\/p>\n

‘Bir ba\u015fka ciddi sorun…’<\/h2>\n

Akademisyen, yaz\u0131s\u0131na \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti: “<\/span>Bir ba\u015fka ciddi sorun bir y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00f6denmesi gereken d\u0131\u015f y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerin toplam\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 (232,7 milyar dolar.) Her ne kadar bu borcun \u00e7evrilmesi y\u0131llard\u0131r bir sorun yaratmam\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de t\u0131pk\u0131 y\u00fcksek tansiyonun v\u00fccudu yormas\u0131 gibi ekonomiyi yoruyor. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 bir kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131k var. Bu kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc kara para, uyu\u015fturucu ticareti gibi yasa d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015flemlerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Bu \u015fekilde sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalan servetler ve gelirlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc kara para aklama mekanizmalar\u0131yla sisteme harcama a\u015famas\u0131nda giriyor. T\u00fcrkiye, bunlar\u0131 vergilendiremiyor (ya da vergilendirmiyor.) Bunlar\u0131 aray\u0131p, bulup, ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p vergilendirmek yerine mevcut vergi m\u00fckelleflerinden biraz daha fazla vergi alarak \u015feffafl\u0131ktan, denetimden uzak kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaya \u00e7abal\u0131yor. Bu t\u00fcr yakla\u015f\u0131mlar da enflasyonu besliyor. B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar toplumda, gelece\u011fe ili\u015fkin k\u00f6t\u00fcmser beklentiler yarat\u0131yor. Meselenin enflasyon yan\u0131 b\u00f6yleyken bir de b\u00fcy\u00fcme taraf\u0131 var. “<\/span><\/p>\n

Beklentilerin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmedi\u011fi bir ortamda enflasyonun baz etkisiyle ve faizi y\u00fcksek, kuru sabit tutarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olsa da bunun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Her ekonominin kendine g\u00f6re a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 ve tercihleri var. Mesela Amerikan halk\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla siyaset\u00e7isi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan en korkulan \u015fey i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Enflasyon da korkulan bir durumdur ama ilk s\u0131rada i\u015fsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelir. Bu, 1929 Krizinden kalma bir travmad\u0131r. Fed, bir yandan enflasyonu kollarken bir yandan da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015fmemesi ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6zel \u00e7aba g\u00f6sterir. Almanlar ve Avrupal\u0131lar ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Avrupal\u0131 siyaset\u00e7i i\u00e7in ilk s\u0131rada enflasyon korkusu gelir. Bu da birinci d\u00fcnya sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 hiper enflasyon ve onun yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 krizden kaynaklan\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki ivmenin kayb\u0131 da \u00f6nemlidir tabii ama o, enflasyondan sonra gelir. ECB, bir yandan enflasyonu kollarken b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de pe\u015finden ko\u015far. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k ECB\u2019nin durumu Fed\u2019den \u00e7ok daha zordur. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ECB, birbirinden farkl\u0131 sorunlar\u0131 olan \u00fclkelerin sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 bir arada \u00e7\u00f6zmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Mesela Almanya son d\u00f6nemde resesyona girdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ne kadar enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden yana olsa da b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flayacak gev\u015femeye de kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 aral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

‘2001 krizi bunun en a\u00e7\u0131k kan\u0131t\u0131’<\/h2>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de siyaset\u00e7inin ilgisi daha \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 \u00fczerindedir. Enflasyonun \u00e7ok y\u00fckselmesi ve halk\u0131n hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u015fik\u00e2yetinin artmas\u0131 da ku\u015fkusuz etkilidir ama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de as\u0131l etkili olan i\u015fsizli\u011fin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. \u0130nsanlar bir i\u015fte \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece \u015fik\u00e2yet etse de hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 idare edebiliyor ama i\u015fini kaybetti\u011fi anda siyaset\u00e7iye olan deste\u011fini hemen \u00e7ekiyor. 2001 krizi bunun en a\u00e7\u0131k kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (TCMB) faizi ne kadar s\u00fcreyle y\u00fcksek tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bize \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek. Onu da 29 Kas\u0131m 2024 tarihinde g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Bu veriler a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131ktan sonraki Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) toplant\u0131s\u0131 26 Aral\u0131k tarihinde olacak. Bu toplant\u0131dan \u00f6nce TCMB\u2019nin politika faizini indirmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere g\u00f6re \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin s\u0131f\u0131ra, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek beklentisinin eksiye (k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmeye) do\u011fru gitti\u011fi kan\u0131s\u0131na varmas\u0131 ve siyaset\u00e7inin de ayn\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncede olmas\u0131 gerekir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.”<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Eski Hazine M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131, yazar ve akademisyen Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faizi y\u00fczde 50’de sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ki\u015fisel blogunda faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131. Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez, yaz\u0131s\u0131na ABD ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz indirimlerine ve bu \u00fclkelerdeki enflasyonun seyrine de\u011finmesinin ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye’nin durumunu inceledi. E\u011filmez, T\u00fcrkiye’deki enflasyonun ‘en k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda olan’ Rusya’daki<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63890,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-magazin"],"yoast_head":"\nDr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez'den faiz yaz\u0131s\u0131: Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131na bakacak -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/kibrisdakik.com\/?p=63889\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez'den faiz yaz\u0131s\u0131: Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131na bakacak -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Eski Hazine M\u00fcste\u015far\u0131, yazar ve akademisyen Dr.\u00a0Mahfi E\u011filmez, Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n faizi y\u00fczde 50’de sabit tutma karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ki\u015fisel blogunda faiz politikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin yaz\u0131 kaleme ald\u0131. 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