<\/p>\n
\n\tNature Communications dergisinde yay\u0131mlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, El Nino-G\u00fcney Sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 (ENSO) olarak bilinen iklim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn sera gaz\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girdi\u011fi tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
\n\tG\u00fcney Kore, ABD, Almanya ve \u0130rlanda\u2019dan bilim insanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, y\u00fcksek \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc iklim modelleri kullanarak Pasifik\u2019teki deniz y\u00fczeyi s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 on y\u0131lda keskin bi\u00e7imde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
\n\tHawaii \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nden Prof. Malte F. Stuecker, \u201cDaha s\u0131cak bir d\u00fcnyada tropikal Pasifik, kararl\u0131 durumdan karars\u0131z bir sal\u0131n\u0131ma ge\u00e7ebilir. Bu, karma\u015f\u0131k iklim modellerinde ilk kez bu kadar net g\u00f6zlemlendi\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\n\tBilim insanlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 30 ila 40 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde El Nino ve La Nina d\u00f6ng\u00fcleri, bug\u00fcnk\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha d\u00fczenli ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc hale gelecek.<\/p>\n
\n\tSim\u00fclasyonlar, 2065 civar\u0131nda zay\u0131f ve d\u00fczensiz sal\u0131n\u0131mlardan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve periyodik dalgalanmalara ge\u00e7ilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tBu de\u011fi\u015fim, \u00f6zellikle tropikal do\u011fu Pasifik, do\u011fu Hint Okyanusu ve kuzey Atlantik\u2019te s\u0131cakl\u0131k farklar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctecek.<\/p>\n
\n\tAra\u015ft\u0131rma, g\u00fc\u00e7lenen ENSO\u2019nun di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck iklim sistemleriyle, Kuzey Atlantik Sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 (NAO), Hint Okyanusu Dipol\u00fc (IOD) ve Tropikal Kuzey Atlantik (TNA), senkronize hale gelece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
\n\tBu durum, farkl\u0131 iklim sistemlerinin ayn\u0131 ritimde hareket etmesine neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
\n\t\u00c7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ortak yazar\u0131 Prof. Axel Timmermann, \u201cBu senkronizasyon, G\u00fcney Kaliforniya ve \u0130ber Yar\u0131madas\u0131 gibi b\u00f6lgelerde ya\u011f\u0131\u015f dengesini bozabilir ve kurakl\u0131kla a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131n pe\u015f pe\u015fe ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u2018iklim kam\u00e7\u0131s\u0131\u2019 etkilerini art\u0131rabilir\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tAra\u015ft\u0131rma, Alfred Wegener Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019n\u00fcn AWI-CM3 modeli kullan\u0131larak y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc. Atmosfer 31 kilometre, okyanus s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ise 4\u201325 kilometre \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckte sim\u00fcle edildi.<\/p>\n
\n\tSonu\u00e7lar, y\u00fcksek sera gaz\u0131 senaryosuna g\u00f6re de\u011ferlendirildi ve farkl\u0131 modellerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131larak do\u011fruland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\n\tDr. Sen Zhao, \u201cENSO\u2019nun gelecekteki davran\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha tahmin edilebilir olabilir, ancak etkileri \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 olacak. Bu nedenle toplumlar\u0131n uyum ve planlama kapasitesini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmesi gerekiyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\n\tAra\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lara g\u00f6re, insan kaynakl\u0131 iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ENSO\u2019nun do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6kten de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
\n\tBu de\u011fi\u015fim yaln\u0131zca Pasifik \u00e7evresini de\u011fil, Avrupa dahil d\u00fcnyan\u0131n uzak b\u00f6lgelerini de etkileyecek.
\n\tProf. Timmermann, \u201cK\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, ekosistemlerden tar\u0131ma ve su kaynaklar\u0131na kadar uzanan zincirleme etkiler yaratabilir. Bu y\u00fczden d\u00fcnya genelinde iklim de\u011fi\u015fkenli\u011fine kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131k art\u0131k zorunlu hale geldi\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\n\tEkip, gelecekte 9 km ve 4 km \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fcrl\u00fckl\u00fc yeni modellerle gezegenin iklim ritmini daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 incelemeyi planl\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar G\u00fcney Kore\u2019deki IBS \u0130klim Fizi\u011fi Merkezi\u2019nin Aleph s\u00fcper bilgisayar\u0131nda s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n